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Test study 1: Forecasting of floods for rural infrastructure

Future climate conditions are expected to result in higher risks of inundation of roads caused by increasing rainfall intensities and increasing groundwater levels. Due to large uncertainties on future climate projections, precautionary design principles may lead to costly over-designed road structures. In this respect, combination of less cautious designs and on-line monitoring and forecasting may provide a flexible and cost-effective climate adaptation strategy.

The short- and medium-range forecasting tools will be tested on the new motorway in Silkeborg, which close to Silkeborg Langsø will run below the terrain surface, and where risks of flooding due to rising groundwater levels and flash floods need to be mitigated. The hydrological forecast model will be based on an integration of a MIKE SHE hydrological model covering groundwater, unsaturated zone and river system with a MIKE Urban model comprising description of the drainage system, enabling forecasting of both groundwater levels and surface water runoff, including flash floods.