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Work Package 2: Probabilistic hydrological forecasting

A methodology will be developed for producing seamless probabilistic hydrological forecasts, considering short-range, medium-range and seasonal forecasting. The development will be based on the following ensemble QPF products:

For hydrological forecasting the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system will be applied. The project will advance a framework for quantification and propagation of the different uncertainty sources in the hydrological forecast system for estimation of the resulting forecast uncertainty, including uncertainties in the QPF and hydrological model uncertainty (initial state, model parameters and model structure).

The probabilistic hydrological forecast system will be applied and tested in Test studies 1 and 2.

Model domain of DMI's ensemble prediction system that will be used in the project for short-range ensemble forecasting. Spatial resolutions are 0.05° (S05) and 0.25° (T15).
Model domain of DMI's ensemble prediction system that will be used in the project for short-range ensemble forecasting. Spatial resolutions are 0.05° (S05) and 0.25° (T15).
Feddersen, H., 2009, A Short-Range Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System, Danish Meteorological Institute, Technical Report 09-14