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Innovative value, impact and relevance

More accurate and more reliable hydrological forecasts can reduce the impacts from water-related hazards and provide the basis for more effective water resources management, emergency management, planning of agricultural production, and environmental monitoring. Operational forecasting uses real-time data for on-line updating of the forecast model, whereby the hydrological forecasts are continuously adapted to the prevailing hydrological and meteorological conditions. In addition, probabilistic forecasts provide important information about forecast uncertainty that is essential for efficient decision making. Use of hydrological forecasting is also an important non-structural instrument for climate adaptation. From a socio-economic point of view a combination of structural and non-structural adaptation measures is often more cost-effective, considering the large uncertainties related to climate change projections.

The hydrological forecasting and data assimilation technologies developed in the project are generic, and will thus have a very broad scope for application. Specific applications will be illustrated in three test studies: